Forecast for 2016 PGA? History says…

We’re counting down the days to the 2016 PGA Championship at Baltusrol (will we see you there?) and now the question is: how’s the weather out there?

We have reported before on a Kansas City weatherman who was making longterm predictions — up to 250 days out — by analyzing weather patterns. But now we have another longterm weather contender, but this one looks to the past to see into the future.

The folks at Tokio Marine HCC-MIS say the Atlas Travelcast “misery index” can give golf fans and golfers a long-range look at the weather for the world’s greatest golf courses. So we asked them to take a look at Baltusrol Golf Club in Springfield, N.J., during the week of July 25.

Their prediction was for temperatures in the mid-70s, with a 37-percent chance of rain. History tells them that in the last 38 years, it has rained in this window only 14 times.

Elizabeth Fish, senior product development specialist for Tokio Marine HCC-MIS, says the key to Atlas Travelcast is the use of historical weather data to make their predictions.

“This is the difference of forecasting versus data analysis,” she tells Golfdom. “Our weather sources are extremely strong. Using those sources we can tell with great certainty how the weather will be for golf. It’s better than any long-range forecasting.”

Fish says Atlas Travelcast relies on sources such as the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and airport records. For golf courses, their records focus on 1,000 courses, mostly in the U.S. The misery index focuses simply on how enjoyable the day will be for a golfer, as opposed to specific weather conditions.

“It’s a one-to-ten scale, based on optimal versus miserable conditions,” Fish says. “And keep in mind, a very good day for golf at St. Andrews is different from a very good day for golf at Torrey Pines.”

The score for the PGA Championship: a six — “not a bad day for golf.” Let’s hope history holds true.