Gary Lezak’s app looks to future, predicts Masters weather 6 weeks out

Kansas City weatherman says his app is so accurate that he knows the weather for Masters week… a full six weeks out.

It doesn’t matter that the Masters is, on this day, still more than six weeks away. Gary Lezak says he can predict the future. And he says with confidence: those heading to Augusta National the second week of April will need to pack an umbrella.

Only time will tell if Lezak, chief meteorologist at KSHB in Kanas City, Mo., is correct. Lezak may not have a crystal ball at his disposal, but instead uses a theory called Lezak’s Recurring Cycle (LRC).

“My company (Weather 2020) is based on the knowledge of the cycling weather pattern. I can make these weather forecasts from day one all the way to 50, 100, even 250 days into the future as soon as I know the weather pattern,” says Lezak.

Utilizing these cycles of weather patterns, Lezak successfully predicted the unusual weather for the 2014 Super Bowl in New Jersey. “The Super Bowl forecast was one we made 50 days before the Super Bowl, but we gained confidence (in January when we made our prediction four weeks out) that it would warm up into the 50s with no chance of snow. We even said it might snow a day or two later and it did. It may have been the best forecast I made in my entire career because it ended up being in the 50s that day,” says Lezak.

According to Lezak, a unique weather pattern is established each fall in October or November. This pattern cycles throughout the year, allowing the meteorologist to make predictions well into the future. Though the details can be difficult to pin down, Lezak says his predictions through Weather 2020 are more accurate than a more traditional seven-day forecast. “A 50-day forecast will be as accurate as a three- or four-day forecast is today using the LRC.”



Masters forecast

Photo: Weather 2020

The key to understanding the LRC is linked to deciphering each weather pattern. “As soon as you can figure out what the weather pattern is and what the cycle length is, then you can project forward and make predictions based on the patterns we have been through,” says Lezak.

In a way, the past provides information about the future. Of course, each year this pattern is altered. “The biggest challenge is in that September/October period when a new weather pattern sets up. By about January 1st, we know the weather pattern and Weather 2020 knows when a storm is going to occur in a location.”

As far as this year’s Masters is concerned, the forecast is both good and bad.

“I think it’s going to rain for the practice rounds, then dry out. For the Masters tournament itself, there may be one brief period of rain, but most of that tournament is going to be in the 70s and nice. That’s our forecast based on the pattern,” says Lezak.

Weather 2020 currently offers an app for IOS7 devices that provides forecasts 12 weeks in advance. The long-range weather predictions can be helpful for everything from planning events and vacations to long-term plans on the golf course. Lezak suggests that this app could reduce uncertainty of weather patterns for
superintendents.

“When is it going to be wet? When is it going to be dry? When is the most likely time to have rain and storm systems? You’ll be able to use the app to see which weeks will be wet, which weeks will be dry. It’s really a cool tool as we evolve from here,” says Lezak.

When dealing with the future however, certainty can never be guaranteed. In the past year, Lezak has been able to document his success rate through the Weather 2020 app. “Out of the last seven long-range forecasts we’ve made, we’re six out of seven,” says Lezak. He continued to say weather predications are not 100 percent accurate, but after getting one incorrect, he strives to be right the next time around.

Despite the lack of guarantee, Lezak is confident that Weather 2020’s long-range forecasts could be beneficial for companies and organizations. “One of the things we will be able to provide is to allow companies to prepare for future weather events. We know what’s going to happen in the future. We are predicting the future.”